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Bitcoin has basically been doing nothing in the days leading up to Christmas, which has both bulls and bears pretty annoyed. Right now, the price is trading at around $89,000 to $90,000 — way below the October peak of about $126,000, to say the least.
To the average person, it looks like it has hit a plateau, and it is not doing much. Samson Mow does not accept that explanation. The Bitcoin advocate, who is known for predicting seven-figure BTC, says the date is more important than the candles, and Dec. 26 is the big day traders are waiting for.
The reason is in the options market, not on-chain narratives or macro headlines. A huge batch of December options will expire on the 26th, with heavy call interest between $100,000 and $118,000, and a clear concentration at the $100,000 strike.
On the downside, put exposure clusters around $85,000-$90,000, effectively boxing price in. People managing this risk are forced to follow a specific plan: sell when prices are high, buy when prices are low and keep Bitcoin in a small range until the contracts expire.
What happens on Dec. 26?
This period is just artificially calm, brought on by hedging flows instead of real supply and demand. When you look at it this way, it is not like sellers are leaving or buyers are throwing in the towel. It is basically pinning, with gamma acting like gravity until the calendar does its thing.
On Dec. 26, gravity disappears. As options expire, hedges unwind and the force suppressing movement disappears almost overnight. History shows that Bitcoin rarely stays dormant once this kind of structure clears.
If the spot price stays above $90,000 and hits $100,000 with real volume, dealers will be pushed to buy against their short call exposure. This could lead to a quick move toward the $110,000-$112,000 zone.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team