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The market might not be ready for an all-around price recovery, but specific assets show a lot of strength despite the generally negative outlook: Ethereum is already testing a midterm resistance level, and XRP is piling up liquidity for a jump. Unfortunately, though, smaller assets like SHIB struggle.
Ethereum shows who's king
Since the entire correction phase started in mid-October, Ethereum is exhibiting its strongest recovery momentum. The market has stopped bleeding, rebuilt its structure and is now putting pressure on its first significant technical ceiling, the 50-day EMA, which is currently hovering just above the $3,350 area. For almost two months, this level has served as dynamic resistance, thwarting every attempt to move higher, but the current strategy is essentially different.
ETH is increasing due to better volume, higher lows and a clear change in sentiment throughout the altcoin market. The candle structure is significant because Ethereum has produced several consecutive strong-bodied green candles that are not sold right away for the first time since early November. Sellers are losing control just based on that.
The most likely scenario is a bullish breakout if the volume holds. With conviction, ETH breaks through the 50 EMA, rises to $3,500 and reenters the larger recovery structure. This makes it possible to retest between $3,700 and $3,800, which is where the greater breakdown started. In this case, the story turns to whether ETH can reach $4,000 once more as bulls regain complete control.
Ethereum forms another higher low at $3,200-$3,250 after being rejected at the 50 EMA. By doing this, bullish momentum will be maintained and the breakout will be postponed. If market-wide liquidity improves, a second strategy will probably be successful.
Failure scenario (now with a lower probability): The price of ETH is pulled back toward the $2,950 range as it rejects strongly and loses the $3,100 support. This would suggest that the market’s appetite is still too low and that the recovery was hasty.
XRP's current structure
For nearly two months, the asset has been grinding inside a clearly defined declining channel, creating lower highs and lower lows while losing momentum at each bounce.
The flattening of the lower boundary is the first signal to watch out for. The force with which sellers pushed XRP into deeper lows in early November is no longer present. Rather, the final retest of the lower trendline produced a comparatively strong bounce and held cleanly. Just that change implies that the bearish side is worn out.
Second, the midchannel descending trendline, the 20 EMA and the 50 EMA are all converging around the $2.15-$2.25 zone, indicating that XRP is gradually starting to test the overhead resistance cluster. The breakout, if it occurs, is usually decisive when several technical ceilings stack together in this manner. The short-term trend would be reversed by a clean daily close above about $2.28, which would probably draw in sidelined buyers who have been awaiting confirmation.
The weakest aspect of the image is still volume. Bulls' lack of commitment indicates that XRP lacks the necessary fuel to break free from its structure. The asset might just keep moving sideways inside the channel unless inflows pick up, which would postpone any significant upside.
The next targets are located at the upper channel boundary between $2.40 and $2.50 if XRP breaks through the $2.25-$2.30 barrier with volume. The path toward $2.70+, where the 200 EMA is waiting, would be made possible by a breakout from the entire channel.
If XRP does not push higher, it will return to the lower trendline and $2.00. The larger structure remains intact as long as this level persists, but momentum decreases.
Shiba Inu stays down
The rejection at the cluster of short-term moving averages (20 EMA and 50 EMA) validates what the chart has been indicating for weeks: buyers still lack the strength to reverse momentum, and SHIB is still trading inside a well-established downtrend.
The asset momentarily moved into the $0.0000089-$0.0000091 range, but it was unable to close above it, which prompted selling pressure and caused the price to drop again. This is significant because, for almost a month, that particular resistance zone has served as a barrier. If it had been broken, the short-term market mentality would have changed from dead cat bounce to early reversal.
Rather, the bearish structure: lower highs, lower lows and a weakening volume profile are strengthened by SHIB’s incapacity to stay above those EMAs. The simple conclusion is that there is insufficient demand, and the downtrend persists when an asset tests resistance with decreasing volume and is rejected.
The current price area may worsen if SHIB is unable to quickly regain momentum. Weak breakout attempts are typically punished by the market, so a return to the $0.0000082-$0.0000080 range is quite possible. The lower supports around $0.0000075, where buyers last intervened with any conviction, are exposed by a breakdown from that point.
SHIB’s initial resistance test was unsuccessful, and the short-term outlook is pessimistic. However, there is no irreparable damage to the structure. There is still hope for a turnaround; it just needs buyers to show up with real volume instead of just fleeting bounces.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team