For years, Bitcoin enthusiasts thought the worst was already behind them as each new cycle brought more liquidity and more institutional support. But that might not be the case in the next 10 years.
Charles Edwards, an analyst widely recognized in the Bitcoin community, says that if the crypto industry does not solve the quantum computing threat by 2026, the crypto market could face the biggest bear market in its history.
All technical nuances aside, Edwards says it will take about two to three years to make hardware that reconstructs private keys from public ones, and it is not some far-off idea — it is a real race that is now receiving billions from Google, IBM and Chinese state labs.
Researchers call it "Q-Day," the moment when public keys turn into open doors. The worst part is that even coins that look safe today can be stolen tomorrow because attackers may already be copying data, waiting to crack it later. That puts almost 25% of all Bitcoin at risk, including the one million BTC attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto.
Is there any cure?
Some developers have already started working on post-quantum proposals. Back in July, Jameson Lopp (cofounder of Casa) and five engineers came up with a plan to gradually stop using vulnerable address types, but the migration is voluntary and not there yet.
The bottom line for Edwards is clear: volatility, halvings and ETF redemptions can be dealt with, but math cannot be negotiated. If Bitcoin does not harden itself in time, the next bear market is going to be about more than just prices falling from $120,000 to $80,000. It will basically be about whether the multi-trillion system still works at all.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team