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One of the few on-chain metrics that truly matters for gauging actual network activity — payment volume — was just severely damaged by XRP. You cannot dismiss the roughly 50% decline in XRP's account-to-account payment volume over the last month as market noise. Losing half of this metric in such a short period of time is an obvious indication of declining transactional demand because it shows actual value being moved through the ledger.
Stabilization or stagnation?
The information is displayed on the chart. Since late October, the payment count has been declining, moving from the recent band's upper range to its lower end, as late November draws near. More importantly, following the mid-November spike, the payment volume chart shows a sharp decline. Instead of a sustained follow-through, the network experienced a clear cool-off following that spike. At the very least, volume should stabilize if demand for value transfer or settlement was increasing.
A similar narrative is revealed by transaction count. Over the past week, the total number of transactions that have been completed has been steadily declining, and it is currently significantly below the average for November. On Nov. 24, the daily figure is approximately 686,000 transactions, a significant decrease from the previous rhythm of 1.2-1.5 million. The September-October dataset's successful transaction count reveals months of erratic activity, with distinct declines that never fully recovered.
Lack of fundamental growth
The network is not currently growing its user base, which supports the main point. When the price structure and on-chain vulnerability are combined, the risk becomes clear. XRP is trading below all higher-time-frame moving averages, and trapped inside a wide declining channel. The RSI is just above oversold, which allows for minor bounces but not enough to buck a trend that is being driven by declining fundamentals.
The catch is that the price has not dropped proportionately, even though a key metric has been lost by 50%. There are two possible interpretations of that. Either traders believe this on-chain decline is fleeting noise, which is optimistic, or the market has not priced in the decline yet, which is risky.
The chart confirms ongoing downward pressure, and the fundamentals softened significantly. A genuine long-term recovery in payments and transaction volume, rather than merely a technical bounce, is necessary for any bullish reaction in this situation.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team