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On the surface, XRP’s market structure appears worn out, but the underlying network data reveals an entirely different picture. With no significant bullish follow-through, price action is still slow and trapped under falling moving averages. However, two important on-chain metrics, payment volume and count, have skyrocketed at the same time, indicating an 80% increase in activity. Rarely does that kind of divergence occur without repercussions.
XRP's network surge
According to the payment-count chart, XRP processes over a million transactions every day, a level that has only previously been seen during times of high network utilization. The distribution of flows indicates wallet-to-wallet transfers linked to actual settlement activity, not bots or exchange churn.
This spike is supported by the payment-volume chart, which shows nominal transfer values approaching $1-2 billion over a few days. To put it simply, a lot more value is being transferred between accounts on the XRP network.
This is significant, because increasing settlement throughput frequently precedes price growth. It shows that XRP is being utilized rather than abandoned. Utility demand is quietly rising in the background, even if speculative demand stays muted. Even if the price initially lags, markets typically reprioritize assets with increasing fundamental load.
XRP is still battling the same downward trend that it has been following since October on the price chart. Every attempt at a recovery is rejected by resistance around the 50- and 100-day EMAs, and lower highs and lower lows predominate.
Price not catching up
The crucial point here is that the underlying network reality is no longer reflected in this downward trend. An asset’s trend is terminal when it exhibits declining volume, diminishing usage and declining price.
Expectations for investors are straightforward. A reversal toward $2.30-2.40 becomes the first logical target if the price eventually responds to the network spike. It will become more and more out of sync with fundamentals if the downward trend continues, and these divergences seldom last.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team