Banking giant Standard Chartered believes that Bitcoin's four-year cycles are already over.
Historically, Bitcoin price movements have been strongly tied to "halving" events (when the block reward for mining Bitcoin is cut in half, roughly every 4 years). Typically, prices would peak about 18 months after a halving.
However, Standard Chartered argues that this old logic no longer reliably predicts price cycles following the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.
The rationale is that ETFs make Bitcoin more accessible to mainstream investors.
For this new dynamic to be proven, BTC would need to break its current all-time high of $126,000. They expect this breakout could happen in the first half of 2026.
Standard Chartered has also lowered its BTC price predictions for the following years (from $200,000 to $100,000 in 2025, from $300,000 to $200,000 in 2026, from $400,000 to $225,000 in 2027, and from $500,000 to $300,000).
Bitcoin is currently changing hands at $90,397, according to CoinGecko data.
On the same page
Apart from Standard Chartered, there are quite a few analysts and market watchers who argue that the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle is no longer relevant.
In a recent research note, Bernstein analysts assert that the traditional four‑year halving cycle is effectively over due to Bitcoin ETFs dominating the scene.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also claims that the flagship cryptocurrency no longer follows four-year cycles, citing institutional buying power.
That said, it remains to be seen whether BTC will be able to reclaim its current all-time high next year.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team