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October is off to a good start for the crypto market, with a boost in inflows and more liquidity. Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs added $756,600,000. Tether just minted a new $2,000,000,000,000 token, which bumped year-to-date issuance to $43,000,000,000, adding to market depth.
Now, the U.S. government shutdown is making it hard to see what's coming down the pike. There is a chance that jobless claims — due Thursday — and the NFP with ISM services on Friday may be pushed back, which would dampen the usual catalysts.
Futures markets still price a 97% chance of a Fed cut in October and expect two cuts total before the end of the year. Traders say that this liquidity-friendly background supports risk assets into the first half of October.
Uptober setup for Bitcoin
After ending Q3 with a 6.4% gain, Bitcoin is trading near $118,600. The $117,000 level is being tested, and $120,000 is marked as the trigger for new highs. Bulls are saying that if the market closes above the seller block this week, it could go up to $130,000.
But dominance is still holding strong at over 55%. If we do not see a retreat, altcoin rallies might be limited.
Market veterans caution that the run from $75,000 in April has grown stretched, and if new highs arrive, the reversal could be painful. For now, the main things affecting the market are money coming into ETFs and increased leverage.
Ethereum bulls eye $4,500 after fresh ETF inflows
Ethereum ETF demand is still strong. Yesterday, there were new inflows of $80,800,000, while the ETH price itself is quoted above $4,200, which is key support, and resistance is at $4,350-$4,400.
Should $4,200 hold into the weekend, traders can expect a retest of the $4,500 zone in October, with a possible extension toward $4,800 if ETF inflows keep up.
But if ETH dips below $4,171, it might signal a trend change and could potentially drop back to $3,900.
Ethereum's move in early Q4 will likely decide if altcoins follow Bitcoin's rise or stay put.
Chart in focus: Dogecoin bulls target $0.30
Today, the chart of the day belongs to Dogecoin, which has quickly become one of October's most popular trades. Derivatives open interest went up to 16,380,000,000 DOGE, which is equal to $3,960,000,000 in exposure. Gate exchange leads with more than $1,000,000,000 in positions, while Binance and Bybit also account for major flows.

The price action confirms the accumulation of leverage. DOGE is up 5.5% at $0.2428, with trading volumes expanding 9.49% to $2.67 billion. The first meaningful breakout level is $0.30, and with Uptober seasonality on its side, targets as high as $0.50 are being discussed if these levels hold for the "meme coin king."
XRP price near $2.90 as Ripple unlocks one billion and treasury adds $19 million
Today, the focus remains on XRP, which continues to dominate market discussions. Nasdaq-listed VivoPower raised $19 million to build its XRP treasury. This comes as many in the space speculate that a U.S. spot ETF could be approved soon, with the deadline set for Oct. 18.
Price wise, XRP is close to $2.90, and $3.10-$3.20 is the resistance band that needs to break for a move toward the $3.30s.
Adding to the buzz is the traditional unlocking of one billion XRP by Ripple. Whale Alert recently confirmed the escrow release, but what really draws attention is that only 70% of this amount was relocked, meaning up to 300 million XRP may have been absorbed by the market.
Outlook toward evening
As the U.S. session closes, the critical question remains: can Bitcoin break through the $116,755-$117,290 range and push toward $120,000? It is vital to hold $112,000 as support to keep the Uptober setup intact.
Ethereum's key level, in the meantime, is $4,171, with market participants looking for a continuation above $4,200.
Altcoins are starting to show stronger participation, and the main hype right now is in privacy coins. Zcash is leading today's performance with a surge of nearly 59% to $148, extending its weekly gains to over 140%. Meme coin SPX6900 follows with a 19% daily increase, and Cronos adds over 11%.