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On paper, Bitcoin’s latest move looks good: the price is rising, trading volumes are healthy and the market is optimistic about reaching six-figure territory. However, a closer look at the chart reveals that the current situation resembles a setup that is waiting for upside movement first before hitting the real bear trigger.
Looking at the TradingView chart, it seems that BTC is pushing up to the $102,000-$109,000 pocket while, in the meantime, the 23-week and 50-week moving average seem to form a crossover pattern which, as the shorter curve is about to cross the longer one, is a death cross.
Also, the 200-week moving average at $66,000 seems like a magnet if the price of BTC is indeed set to fall after hitting a grim pattern.
That is the center of the whole setup because the move toward $100,000 looks optimistic only until you place these pieces together and realize the chart is guiding the price into a bull trap.
This is why the bounce feels normal even though the structure behind it is not. BTC sitting near the low $90,000s has enough room to drift toward $100,000 without triggering anything unusual, and that window lets the market build comfort before the cross completes.
Perfect bull trap
The $102,000-$109,000 band becomes the perfect trap because it gives bulls the last "this looks fine" moment before the death cross prints, and once it prints, the $66,000 level is hard to dismiss.
The long-trend average does not sit there for decoration. It is where pressure builds when a midtrend cross hits elevated prices because the market prefers to reset at a level that actually holds historical weight.
None of this stops Bitcoin from touching $100,000. It just reframes what that move represents.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team