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The rally of XRP just crashed headlong into supply. The price failed at about $2.40-$2.50, just below a confluence of moving averages and previous breakdown levels, following a strong rebound off sub-$2.20. The 100/200-EMA was still overhead and sloping down when the rejection occurred, precisely where the 26-EMA/50-EMA cluster descends. Every bounce dies into the MA stack in this traditional bear-market architecture.
Bears catch up
A rising wedge from the late-October low can be seen when you zoom in, and the lows are higher, but the momentum is diminishing and the volume is muted. Now that the wedge has kissed resistance and rolled back to the base of the move, it usually resolves lower. RSI in the low-50s did not break the trend, as there was neither a bullish divergence nor a follow-through.
Important levels: bulls need to recover $2.58-$2.65 (MA cluster and previous support turned resistance). The real test is above that, between $2.80 and $2.85 (200-EMA zone), if you can clear it on volume, you can think about a trend repair. If you do not, the market will interpret this as a bearish retest.
What's next?
The first support on the downside is between $2.32 and $2.28; if you lose it, the door opens to $2.20, followed by $2.05 and $2.00, where the final capitulation is anchored.
The volume profile is not favorable to bulls, and the sell candles near resistance expanded, indicating active supply, while the bounce printed respectable but not dominant participation. This is a countertrend rally rather than a reversal, until XRP sets a higher high and lower low above $2.65.
The tactical lesson is that risk should be limited in this situation. If you are bullish, you want an MA flatten or flip and acceptance above $2.65; if not, you should anticipate grind and fade. The grim pattern manifests as another leg down to test the October base if the price closes back inside the wedge body and momentum falls beneath RSI 45.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team