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Quick summary:
- OKX internal data confirms a massive reduction in XRP holdings, with custodial storage plummeting nearly 50% in 30 days.
- Benjamin Cowen identifies March 3 — the date of a total lunar eclipse — as the likely window for a local top.
- For only the second time in history, Tether’s USDT 60-day market cap change has dipped below $3 billion, signaling extreme institutional de-risking.
- High volatility is expected as the U.S. implements 15% global trade tariffs on Tuesday, along with the State of the Union address and XRP Australia 2026.
XRP users offload 12.25 million tokens on OKX since January
Fresh data from one of the largest offshore crypto exchanges, OKX, reveals an exodus of XRP liquidity throughout the first two months of 2026. While the exchange maintains a healthy 111% reserve ratio for XRP, the raw volume of tokens leaving the platform suggests not only retail exhaustion but institutional redemptions as well.
This is evident by how the "Custodial Storage" figure crashed from 15.13 million XRP in January to just 7.67 million in February, representing a 49.26% decline. Overall, assets held in user accounts dropped by 12.25 million tokens (-7.40%), while the total XRP held within OKX wallets saw a near-identical reduction of 12.254 million tokens.
It is difficult to name this drawdown as just a minor fluctuation. It reflects, rather, a bigger trend of liquidity being pulled from the secondary market.
When nearly 50% of custodial-stored XRP disappears in a month, it typically indicates that large-scale holders are either moving to private cold storage in anticipation of long-term volatility or, more likely, liquidating positions to cover capital requirements elsewhere as global trade tensions rise.
Cowen suggests Bitcoin peak by March 3, with "blood moon"
Whether this is a "memetic" prediction or the real deal, IntoTheCryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen has pinpointed March 3, 2026, as the potential climax for Bitcoin. Reacting to astronomical confirmations of a total lunar eclipse — a "blood moon" — Cowen suggested that this celestial event may mark the next local top for BTC.
While the "blood moon" framing provides a catchy esoteric angle, the underlying thesis is grounded in market timing as Cowen anticipates "a little more weakness into late February" before a final push toward the March 3 window.
In crypto parlance, "mooning" is the ultimate goal, and Cowen’s punny prediction implies that the literal mooning of the planet's satellite might coincide with the exhaustion of Bitcoin's upward ambition.
If history is any guide, these "local tops" often occur when retail sentiment reaches a fever pitch, making the March 3 deadline a critical date for traders to consider taking profits — even for those who do not believe that moon cycles may guide crypto prices as they do tides.
USDT triggers signal seen only at 2022 bottom
Perhaps the most sober data point this Monday comes from CryptoQuant, regarding the health of the world’s largest stablecoin — Tether (USDT) — with its liquidity currently exhibiting behavior that has occurred only once before: during the 2022 cycle bottom when Bitcoin traded at $16,000.
The 60-day Market Cap Change has dropped below -$3 billion — a massive contraction of "dry powder." In early 2026, with Bitcoin in the $65,000–$70,000 range, this contraction indicates that the "forced selling" and "maximum fear" typical of a macro bottom are currently playing out, despite the price being significantly higher than in 2022.
Furthermore, USDT has recorded three separate instances of single-day outflows exceeding -$1 billion. These aggressive redemptions reflect large players moving entirely out of the crypto ecosystem.
However, there is a silver lining: historically, once this "liquidity withdrawal" stabilizes, it marks the point of exhaustion for sellers. As CryptoQuant notes, the risk-reward ratio shifts quickly in favor of the upside once the flows flatten. Thus, the digital assets market is currently in the "stress test" phase.
Key events for week ahead. XRP, BTC price updates
The macro calendar is packed with "black swan" potential, particularly stemming from Washington, D.C.:
- Monday, Feb. 23: China (Lunar New Year) and Japan (Emperor's Birthday) closed.
- Tuesday, Feb. 24: The U.S. implements 15% global trade tariffs. This is expected to cause immediate ripples in currency markets and risk assets. Simultaneously, the president of the U.S. will deliver his annual address to Congress at 05:00, likely outlining further economic protectionist measures.
- Thursday, Feb. 26: Initial Jobless Claims will provide a pulse check on the U.S. labor market's resilience under the new tariff regime.
- Friday, Feb. 27: A data-heavy end to the week with the Fed Balance Sheet update, January's PPI (Producer Inflation) and the Chicago PMI. Plus: the XRP Australia 2026 conference kicks off in Sydney.
The digital assets market is essentially in a race between liquidity exhaustion and geopolitical shocks. The USDT contraction suggests we are nearing a point where there are simply no more large sellers left to blink, but the 15% trade tariffs arriving Tuesday represent a major unknown variable for global liquidity.
Levels to watch:
- Bitcoin (BTC): Watch for a consolidation floor near $62,500. If the Cowen "local top" theory holds, we need to see a claim of $72,000 before March 3 to confirm a blow-off top scenario.
- XRP: With the Sydney conference acting as a backdrop, XRP needs to hold the $1.30-$1.40 zone against selling pressure.
Vladislav Sopov
Dan Burgin