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During the ongoing cryptocurrency market collapse, one question dominates: Where is the bottom?
According to investor Bill Miller IV, $60,000 is the critical level where the market likely stabilizes, with "weak hands" being finally shaken out.
The two key reasons
Miller has pointed to the cash production cost of creating every new coin.
If the market price drops below the cost to produce the asset, miners might be forced to either shut down their rigs to stop losing money or hoard their coins.
Notably, as reported by U.Today, JPMorgan recently estimated that Bitcoin's price is currently trading well below its production cost ($87,000). This is well above Miller's estimate. In a separate post, he has clarified that it excludes depreciation, meaning that it does not include the millions of dollars the miners already spent to buy the ASICs.
Miller has also noted that $60,000 is precisely where the percentage of supply in loss exceeds the percentage of supply in profit. This has had prior market bottoms.
Is the bottom actually near?
If history is any guide, Bitcoin might actually be approaching a major bottom.
The 3D RSI (3-day relative strength index), a momentum indicator used to measure whether an asset is "overbought," is currently in extremely oversold territory. Every time this happened, it marked the end of a bear market. There have been only four such occasions so far. For instance, the RSI hitting the aforementioned zone marked the exact bottom of the 2018 crash (near $3,200).
Hence, if this time is not different, either the bottom is already in, or it will happen within roughly 100 days.
Alex Dovbnya
Gamza Khanzadaev
Tomiwabold Olajide
Denys Serhiichuk
Caroline Amosun