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Shiba Inu recently saw about 200 billion SHIB return to exchanges, increasing the total exchange reserves to about 81.65 trillion. After a few days of consistent outflows, that is a discernible increase. Historically, large-scale SHIB inflows have typically indicated that supply is getting ready to meet demand.
SHIB is not bullish
This inflow is occurring at the exact moment that the price is attempting a precarious recovery between $0.0000085 and $0.0000087, which makes the timing significant. SHIB is still clearly below all of the major EMAs (50, 100 and 200) on the chart, and the slope on each of them is still very bearish. The recent bounce was a technical response to oversold conditions rather than a structure-breaking reversal, so the downtrend has not been invalidated.
Although the RSI has recovered from its sub-30 peak, a shift in momentum is still far off. Since early October, SHIB has been trading below the channel resistance, which has been rejecting the price. In light of this, the increase in exchange reserves appears to be more indicative of possible sell-side preparation than accumulation.
While adding 200 billion SHIB to exchanges usually results in more liquidity for hedging or profit-taking, it does not always imply distribution. Coins are rarely moved onto exchanges by large holders unintentionally.
What does this mean?
Scenario 1: Bearish continuation (likely in the near future). SHIB may retest support at $0.0000080 or even move toward the next liquidity pocket at $0.0000074 if this inflow is ahead of a sell wave. This conclusion is still supported by the trend structure.
Neutral/Chop Scenario 2: SHIB is likely to compress between $0.0000082 and $0.0000090, creating a short-term range until either BTC volatility forces a direction or SHIB's volume picks up again if the inflow is market-maker repositioning rather than aggressive selling.
Scenario 3: Bullish break (presently low probability). SHIB requires the following in order to turn bullish: a reimbursement of $0.0000095, a close above the 50 EMA every day and a persistent decline in exchange reserves (trend of actual withdrawals).
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team