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With more than 82 trillion SHIB currently sitting on centralized exchanges, Shiba Inu has just reached a milestone that few long-term investors want to see. Although the figure is striking in and of itself, its ramifications are far more alarming than impressive.
Shiba Inu's chance
For SHIB, another wave seriously reduces the likelihood of a significant trend reversal in the near future because exchange reserves at this scale usually reflect sustained distribution rather than accumulation. Exchange reserves are tokens that are easily sold.
It indicates that holders are getting ready to sell rather than commit to long-term exposure when this metric increases rather than decreases. The consistent rise above the 82 trillion mark in Shiba Inu's case indicates that selling pressure is both present and structurally ingrained into the market. When so much supply is still parked on exchanges waiting for liquidity, even brief rallies find it difficult to gain momentum.
This worry is strengthened by price action. SHIB has frequently failed to stay above important moving averages, especially the 100 EMA, which has served as a stable ceiling. Rallies are being utilized as exit opportunities rather than entries, as evidenced by the aggressive selling that has followed each bounce. Assets trapped in protracted distribution phases, where upside movements are fleeting and shallow, typically exhibit this behavior.
On-chain metrics do not really help. Even though the number of active addresses has slightly increased, this does not change the overall picture of growing exchange reserves. Increased activity typically indicates speculative churn rather than true accumulation if there are no corresponding outflows.
To put it another way, traders are active but lack conviction. For any clean trend change, going over 82 trillion SHIB on exchanges is practically a death sentence from a structural perspective. The market would need to witness a persistent decline in exchange balances in addition to price stabilization above significant technical levels for normalization to even be conceivable. At the moment, neither requirement is met.
Godfrey Benjamin
Gamza Khanzadaev
Arman Shirinyan
Alex Dovbnya