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Since early October, XRP's trend has been defined by a wide descending channel that is still stuck inside. Every attempt to break above the upper boundary has been thwarted by diminishing volume, lower highs and ongoing pressure from the major moving averages — particularly the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, which are still sloping downward.
XRP staying down
Although this keeps XRP in a controlled downtrend, structurally, the asset is finally nearing a turning point given that the price is currently testing the channel's midrange once more. The market's response around $2.05-$2.10, a support area that has consistently absorbed selling without permitting acceleration to the downside, provides the first significant signal. Higher local lows have been produced by each retest, which is frequently the first indication that a downtrend is losing steam.
A breakout would become the central scenario if XRP were to maintain that base and move toward the upper boundary of the channel, which is located between $2.22 and $2.27. But cost is not the whole picture. The payments data from XRP Ledger provides the deeper signal. The most recent spike above 1,000,000 daily payments indicates that the network is maintaining high usage despite price suppression, which is a psychological and functional threshold.
XRP's upcoming volatility boost
In the past, when XRP payments crossed this threshold and remained there, the asset typically saw an increase in volatility within a few days or weeks. Although utility creates a floor under the market and undermines bearish narratives, it does not ensure bullish price action.
This is further supported by the payment volume chart, which shows that over the last three months, transfers between accounts have been steadily rising, with multiple spikes hitting or surpassing the multibillion-dollar equivalent. This suggests that even though speculative liquidity has decreased, bigger players — payment processors, liquidity providers and whales — remain engaged.
What comes next? The point at which XRP's downward trend either ends or resets sharply is getting closer. The most obvious indication of a trend reversal would be a breakout above the channel, along with consistent payments above the one million mark. If that does not happen, the asset may drift back toward $2.00, but the on-chain activity will prevent the structural weakness that was previously observed.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team