Prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo is warning cryptocurrency investors not to be fooled by any upcoming short-term strength in Bitcoin's price.
Woo insists the macro environment remains firmly bearish, and a potential push above the $80,000 level could end up being a bear trap.
A relief rally in the offing?
According to Woo, the market is currently primed for a deceptive upward swing.
"Despite a local rejection of mid-70s, investor flows have been in consistent recovery since mid-Feb," Woo noted. "Meanwhile, expected volatility (VIX) on equities is hinting at a switch to 'risk on' in the coming weeks."
Woo argues that the sheer velocity of Bitcoin's recent drawdown has left the market temporarily exhausted and ripe for a bounce. "BTC sold off WAY TOO FAST in this early bear market, and current conditions are setting up to test mid-80s, which is the cost basis of short-term investors," he explained.
Typically, when an asset experiences a violent flush, it eventually consolidates before retesting prior support levels. "Typically, after fast downward flushes like we have had, BTC likes to go sideways and mount a rally where resistance is tested. Bull trap forming," he noted.
This is not a bottom
Woo claims that Bitcoin remains in the middle of a bear market. Hence, he cannot say definitely whether or not the bottom is in.
"This is NOT me saying the bottom is in," he clarified. "BTC is solidly in the middle of its bear market through a lens of long range liquidity."
The analyst defended his track record, particularly when it comes to identifying market floors.
"Cycle tops are pretty hard to nail because momentum and volatility take over …Bottoms are much easier because markets respond to liquidity immediately after a vaccuum," he said.
When asked about the timeframe for this anticipated relief rally, Woo estimated it could stretch "out to end of April." He added that he doesn't rely on specific price levels to validate his thesis, but rather tracks capital flows. "I will always hold my views lightly according to liquidity changes... If capital comes back in force with the right type of long-term investors, then I'll happily change my views."
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
