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The on-chain data for Shiba Inu appears concerning at first. Concerns about impending sell pressure and the lack of a genuine bullish catalyst are immediately raised by the fact that more than $716 million worth of SHIB is presently sitting on centralized exchanges. But this headline figure is much more deceptive than it seems, and assessing SHIB's current situation requires knowing what lies behind it.
Liquidity is not there
The $716 million amount is a mark-to-market valuation rather than the amount of capital that could actually be absorbed or liquidated without significantly affecting the price. In comparison to assets with comparable notional valuations, Shiba Inu's order books are still comparatively thin.
In reality, effective liquidity would rapidly collapse if a sizable portion of those exchange-held tokens were to move at once. Because of this, the actual usable liquidity behind that $716 million is probably closer to $100-200 million given the state of the market. Beyond that range, price discovery becomes chaotic rather than orderly and slippage becomes severe.
Shiba Inu's attempt to recover
After a decline, SHIB is making small attempts at price stabilization. The asset struggles beneath heavier resistance zones defined by mid- and long-term EMAs, but it was able to recover from local lows and briefly reclaim short-term moving averages.
This behavior is more indicative of relief buying than a verified reversal of the trend. Although momentum indicators show strength in the short term, they are still far from indicating a long-term bullish structure.
This caution is reinforced by exchange metrics. Tokens are still easily accessible for sale in the event that sentiment declines because reserves are still trending upward. There hasn't been a clear shift in netflows into persistent outflows, which would typically indicate accumulation or longer-term holding behavior.
Rather than conviction, activity suggests opportunistic trading. The most important lesson is that while large exchange reserves are not inherently bullish, they are also not always a death sentence.
The $716 million amount overstates how deep SHIB's market actually is. Shiba Inu is still structurally vulnerable until reserves start to significantly decline and the price begins to hold above crucial moving averages with volume support.
Arman Shirinyan
Alex Dovbnya
Tomiwabold Olajide