Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Mike Novogratz's Galaxy Digital, claims that there is a strong chance that the U.S. government will announce the formation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR) as early as this year.
This means that the U.S. government might formally hold Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
Thorn claims that the market is currently underpricing the probability of such an announcement.
Polymarket odds
According to Polymarket bettors, there is currently a minuscule 15% chance of the US setting a national Bitcoin reserve this year.
The market will resolve to "Yes" only if the US government buys additional coins on top of the confiscated ones.
It is worth noting that the US established the strategic Bitcoin reserve in March via an executive order, but it merely committed to stopping the sales of forfeited Bitcoins.
Earlier this year, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that US Bitcoin reserves stood at roughly $20 billion, but Thorn argues that this does not actually qualify as a formal announcement of the SBR.
Buying Bitcoin with tariff revenue?
As reported by U.Today, Fred Krueger, a former Wall Street quant, recently suggested that the U.S. could potentially acquire Bitcoin in the future with the help of tariff revenue.
Such a scenario would dramatically change the current supply-demand dynamics, but it remains rather far-fetched.
After stating that the U.S. government would not be buying Bitcoin, Bessent later clarified that there could be a budget-neutral avenue for future acquisitions. Bloomberg previously suggested that the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) could potentially be used to buy Bitcoin.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team