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Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the company led by Michael Saylor that turned its balance sheet into one giant Bitcoin bet, is suddenly under pressure again.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, the MSTR stock has broken below its 50-week EMA, a technical line that divides healthy uptrends from larger corrections. Since the breakdown, the company has already lost 30% of its value.
The timing could not be worse. Bitcoin is barely above $100,000 after a week of heavy selling. Strategy holds 641,205 Bitcoin, purchased at an average price of about $74,000 each and currently worth approximately $64 billion. This represents a 35% paper profit, but the problem is leverage: when Bitcoin slips, Strategy's stock moves twice as hard in the same direction.
Currently, the firm’s market cap is near $68 billion (basic) to $76 billion (diluted), while enterprise value surpasses $83 billion. Its mNAV ratios at 1.06-1.29 suggest that investors are pricing in a premium over its Bitcoin holdings — a safety net vulnerable to collapse if confidence weakens.
Sentiment worsens
Trader DonAlt said what he felt: "What happens to this garbage if BTC doesn't hold $100,000?" A chart he shared shows that MSTR could fall another 55% to around $109 if Bitcoin dips further.
The comment sparked heavy debate on X, with analysts divided between dismissing it as panic talk and admitting that the chart setup looks brutal. Some see parallels to 2022, when MicroStrategy’s share price lagged behind Bitcoin for months before crashing in sync.
Currently, Bitcoin is barely holding at $100,000, and Strategy is trading near $237 — two numbers that could determine the future of this corporate Bitcoin experiment.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team