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Bitcoin just hit a double-trigger setup that has not appeared in over a year — Capriole's institutional accumulation signal is flashing green, and Bitcoin treasury companies have flipped back to net buyers. The last five times this setup appeared, Bitcoin's average gain hit over 109%.
Right now? It is only 5% plus.
The main signal is "Net Institutional Buying," which is a tracker for inflows from big-time allocators. The chart just printed its sixth green phase since 2020, with four of the previous five producing major rallies: +390%, +68%, +61% and +41%, respectively. Only one did not, with a -13% move.
So, if the average plays out again, Bitcoin would go from $89,000 to around $186,000-$196,000, which would put it close to the much-anticipated $200,000 mark.
Not only Bitcoin, but Ethereum too
The secondary confirmation came in without much fanfare. Capriole's Buy-Sell Ratio ROC for Bitcoin treasuries just turned positive, showing that treasury-held entities — like Strategy, American Bitcoin and other large corporate wallets — are back on the buy side.
These are usually slower and less risky moves, and when they bounce back in, it usually shows that the trend is still strong. The last green phase here was right before a vertical run back in August.
Charles Edwards, who handles the signals, also described the ETH treasury trend as "strongly positive," which means that it is not only Bitcoin that enjoys an institutional tailwind, but Ethereum too.
When these two metrics line up — net institutional inflows and treasury buy-backs — it usually means that something aggressive is going on behind the biggest scene. On top of that, the ETF flow structure is going to make it even more intense.
Thus, it looks like the ignition might have just begun.
Gamza Khanzadaev
Arman Shirinyan
Alex Dovbnya