Bitcoin's 4-year cycle "Dead," says Pierre Rochard
Here’s why you should probably forget about Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycles.
- Why halving is irrelevant. With 95% of BTC mined, block reward cuts no longer meaningfully affect supply.
Pierre Rochard, chief executive officer at The Bitcoin Bond Company, argues that Bitcoin's typical four-year market cycles are now officially over.
As noted by Rochard, halvings no longer change the cryptocurrency's supply in a substantial way. Back in the day, halving events were viewed as the main drivers of bullish and bearish cycles since the reduction of block rewards would also dramatically lower the new supply.
However, now that 95% of Bitcoin's entire supply has already been mined, daily issuance does not have a significant impact on the existing trading float.
- Whale-driven market. Most new selling pressure now comes from OG whale wallets, not miners.
Furthermore, as Rochard says, the vast majority of new coins that are being sold now come from OG whales instead of miners. Hence, prices are at the mercy of the personal decisions of such whales.
Moreover, demand now mainly comes from institutional investors instead of speculative retail traders. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as well as corporate treasuries are primarily responsible for pushing Bitcoin prices higher.
While retail investors are still somehow influential, their role has significantly diminished compared to previous cycles due to Bitcoin's growing institutional adoption.
XRP nears breakout above key trendline
XRP's breakout potential is higher than it may seem.
- Latest price action. XRP jumps to $3.28, challenging the descending trendline that’s capped gains since late July’s $3.50 peak.
With the price of XRP soaring to $3.28 and hitting the descending trendline that has capped its recovery since the late-July highs around $3.50, the cryptocurrency is once again in the news. XRP is now within striking distance of a possible breakout above $3.30 despite the trendline serving as a crucial technical barrier for almost three weeks.
The setup is straightforward: XRP created a textbook descending trendline and entered a short-term correction after peaking at $3.50. With the recent quick rally from the $3.00 support zone, the price is currently attempting to break through that same trendline once more.
- Technical setup. A daily close above $3.30 could trigger a push toward $3.50 and $3.70.
A daily close above $3.30 might indicate the beginning of a new upward leg, with $3.50 and $3.70 as the next targets. Nonetheless, trading volume is a significant factor restraining the bullish enthusiasm. During the past few sessions, volume has actually been trending lower, even though the price has increased significantly.
Because they do not have the momentum to support follow-through buying, breakouts in technical analysis that do not have strong volume confirmation can occasionally produce false signals. However, the moving averages continue to provide XRP with strong structural support.
Ethereum whale sends $135M to Coinbase
Potential Ethereum sell-off scare in view as 39,699 ETH lands on Coinbase Institutional.
- Price surge. ETH gains 17%, holding above $4,000.
Ethereum (ETH) has gained over 17% in price outlook as the coin maintained steady momentum above the $4,000 level. It appears that this bullish performance has sparked profit-taking moves among investors in the ecosystem. As spotted by Whale Alert, an Ethereum whale has sent over $135.3 million worth of ETH to Coinbase Institutional.
According to the transaction details, the transfer came from an unknown wallet. The whale holder moved 31,699 ETH valued at $132,532,058 to Coinbase in a single transaction. The move signals that the holder is looking to offload that massive volume of Ethereum.
- Market context. Not all transfers mean sales, but last time ETH topped $4K (Dec 2024), a sharp correction to below $2K followed.
Although not all transfers translate to sales, current market conditions make this transfer of concern to community members. According to historical data, the Ethereum price breached $4,000 in December 2024 but could not climb all the way to flip the ATH.
The market recorded a correction that plunged the price below $2,000. It is likely that some market participants and investors are concerned that a repeat could occur, hence the positioning to sell to take profit.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team