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The key trigger behind the current decline in Bitcoin's price is developers' disregard for the quantum threat, which has pushed the Bitcoin Quantum Discount to a new high of 28%, according to a statement by Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards.
Fresh data from Edwards' model reveals a massive gap between Bitcoin's market price and its actual value, as it has dropped 15.60% and is currently sitting at $62,099.03. However, this drop has pushed the price completely below the model's yellow "Discount Factor" line - a baseline that projects Bitcoin's true valuation on a steady path toward $120,000.
How a quantum valuation gap is artificially depressing Bitcoin's price
According to Charles Edwards, the decisive pressure on Bitcoin's price comes from total paralysis in development by the Bitcoin Core team, which still has not made progress on integrating post-quantum encryption algorithms. Edwards estimates the mathematical probability of the current ECDSA standard being compromised by quantum computing, known as "Q-Day", will begin rising exponentially after 2027 and reach 63.53% by 2030.
The head of Capriole directly states that if an official network upgrade plan is not presented within the next 12 months, Bitcoin technically will not be able to set a new historical maximum and will continue its prolonged decline, pricing in the risk of quantum uncertainty through a discount.
In addition to technological risks, Edwards points to a hidden dead end in the form of a debt bubble in corporate treasuries, created by Michael Saylor's aggressive strategy of turning Strategy into an unregulated Bitcoin ETF with enormous leverage.
Moreover, Edwards sees a total industry boycott by retail investors, whose endless conveyor belt of fraudulent meme coins and rug pulls has created a lasting immunity to promises of easy money, fully depriving Bitcoin of its main historical fuel - inflows of fresh money from retail investors.
As a result, according to Edwards' conclusions, the 28% discount that has formed represents an investment paradox - the market is artificially undervaluing Bitcoin because of technological fear, but if an official announcement of finished post-quantum signature code appears, this price gap will immediately close through an aggressive repricing of Bitcoin toward its real value.
Dan Burgin
