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Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, has recorded its very first red candle after the halving year in history.
This means that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is pretty much over since there was no post-halving supply shock.
The "four-year cycle" theory relied on the post-halving year being the most explosive period of growth.
Bitcoin used to experience enormous rallies during post-halving rallies (2013, 2017, and 2021). The supply shock of the halving forced price appreciation within 12–18 months.
Diminishing returns
The chart shows a clear trend of "diminishing returns". Each subsequent green candle is smaller than the last.
Due to the introduction of ETFs and institutional capital, Bitcoin has become a "macro asset" with lower volatility. It is no longer being viewed as a high-growth speculative bet.
The "broken" cycle in 2025 was essentially foretold in early 2024.
This cycle was historically unique because the flagship cryptocurrency broke its all-time high in March 2024. This happened roughly one month before the halving actually occurred.
During previous market cycles, ATHs would arrive 12–18 months after the halving events.
The launch of spot ETFs is believed to be the main reason why the cycle started so early. This sucked all the liquidity out of the future. By the time 2025 arrived, the "institutional wall of money" that everyone expected had already been deployed in 2024.
More broken stats
Bitcoin used to operate on a strict "1 bear year, 3 bull years" cadence. The data shows that 2025 just killed this streak. This is the first time since the 2014 bear market that Bitcoin failed to complete a trilogy of green candles.
On top of that, this is the first time that Bitcoin concluded a year with a price change of less than 10%. This once again shows that Bitcoin has lost its volatility.
Dan Burgin
Alex Dovbnya
Vladislav Sopov
Arman Shirinyan