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Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, is preparing to pass an important technical and economic milestone, as according to blockchain data, the total number of issued coins will reach 20 million this week, according to Blockchain.
Right now, about 19,997,000 BTC are in circulation, and if the current block generation speed remains the same, meaning about 10 minutes per block on average, the 20 millionth coin will be mined around March 11, 2026. After that, only one million BTC will remain to be mined before the final cap of 21 million, which represents about 4.7% of the total supply.
Why is this happening so slowly? Even though 95% of all Bitcoins were mined during the first seven years of the network’s existence, the remaining 5% will be distributed for a very long time because of the halving mechanism. This mechanism is the programmed reduction of new coin issuance by half every four years.
Reaching the 20 million mark does not change how the algorithm works. However, for the market, it is an important signal because it reminds participants of a key feature of Bitcoin — its scarcity and fixed supply.
How could this affect price of Bitcoin?
The first argument is the strengthening of the scarcity narrative, which is the bullish scenario. There is the FOMO effect as 95% of the supply has already been mined, and there is reinforcement of Bitcoin’s status as digital gold and a defensive asset. Supply is limited and issuance growth does not exist.
The second scenario is bearish and follows the principle of “buy the rumor, sell the news.” If large market participants push the price higher ahead of the event, when the 20 millionth coin is actually mined, a short-term correction may follow, because those who pushed the price earlier may begin to take profits from the hype around this milestone.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
