Analysts at the top asset management company, Pantera Capital, believe the Bitcoin price might hit $149K, but no sooner than after the next halving — presumably, in 2025.
Pantera Capital: The next BTC halving is projected to occur on April 20, 2024. On average, the market peaks 1.3 years after. If history were to repeat itself, the next halving would see bitcoin rising to $36k before the halving and $149k after. https://t.co/VdAqkv3Jy2 pic.twitter.com/ezNdIKu1Fn— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) November 23, 2022
The next halving is expected to occur on April 20, 2024, and will see the mining reward halved from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block.
Every four years, that "block reward" is cut in half, which is called "halving." This process repeats until the year 2140, when Bitcoin will reach its 21 million fixed supply.
Pantera Capital analysts opine that if the demand for new Bitcoins remains constant and the supply of new Bitcoins is slashed in half, this might force the price up. Also, there has been an increased demand for Bitcoin before the halving event because of the expectation of a price increase.
Based on precedents, Pantera notes that the typical bottom formation is one year and three months before the halving and, on average, the market peaks 1.3 years later, which implies a total of two and a half years to see the impact of the halving.
According to Pantera, if history were to repeat itself, the price of Bitcoin would bottom most likely on Dec. 30, 2022, and a rally early in 2024 might set in, followed by a strong rally after the actual halving event.
Bitcoin has historically bottomed 477 days before halving, rallied leading into the event and consequently made an upside run. If this repeats, the next halving might see Bitcoin rise to $36K before the halving and $149K after.
Even higher predictions
Renowned venture capitalist Tim Draper restated his prediction that the Bitcoin price would be able to hit the $250,000 level and even go beyond it.
Draper has repeatedly predicted that BTC may hit $250,000 by the end of 2023.
Bitcoin is trading at $16,555, a mild 5% increase after an earlier decline brought about by FTX contagion fears.