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Ansem, a high-profile crypto trader, has thrown a direct call into an already tense December market, arguing that Bitcoin’s price path may curve straight back into $80,000 before 2025 is out.
Stripped of hedging language and anchored on a clean one-hour chart, the chart by Ansem the move as a natural checkpoint in a market that has been losing strength since the $93,000 rejection earlier this week.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s quarterly returns chart shows Q4 swinging from strong finishes to hard pullbacks depending on cycle conditions. Last year delivered 47.6% in Q4, the year before it only printed 5.6%, and 2025 is currently sitting at -22%, signaling that seasonality offers no cushion and that the worst retests are common when bull momentum cools.
If BTC keeps slipping under the $89,000 base, the market may seek a deeper liquidity pocket, and the $80,000 cluster is the first area with real historical absorption. For bulls, that retest would not invalidate the general trend. For bears, it would confirm that December is more about cleaning stale positions than printing fresh highs.
Is this bear market?
The prediction arrives while everyone debates whether a bear market has already begun. Fall 2025 mirrors fall 2021 in one important way: crypto turned down ahead of equities, just as it did four years ago when the S&P 500 kept rising into January 2022 while digital assets and small caps cracked early.
In late 2021 the market was pricing tightening. Today the environment is the opposite on paper: easing, cooling inflation and slower policy pressure. That setup can produce a "cold shower" outcome at December's FOMC meeting. Inside that macro frame, an $80,000 for Bitcoin retest sits comfortably within the expected volatility corridor for December.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team