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Right now Shiba Inu has an interesting but mixed setup, CryptoQuant suggests. All of the major moving averages, such as the 50-day, 100-day and heavy 200-day EMA, continue to suppress price action on the daily chart. That, in and of itself, indicates that the token has not yet broken free of its multimonth decline, and that the overall trend is still negative.
Does bounce matter?
Despite being noteworthy, this most recent bounce has not overcome any significant structural resistance. However, the on-chain data positively complicates the situation. The exchange net outflow of about 19 billion SHIB over the previous 24 hours is the most notable metric. Net outflows, which typically indicate either accumulation or long-term holding, suggest investors are transferring tokens from exchanges to private wallets.
This suggests less immediate selling pressure when combined with a minor drop in exchange reserves, which are currently at about 81.62 trillion SHIB. On a market where sentiment regarding SHIB has been largely sluggish, these changes are directionally significant, even though they are not significant.
Additionally, transfer activity is slightly increasing, and active addresses are up almost 1%. Again, these are minor gains rather than significant breakthroughs, but they show that the network is still alive, even though the price performance suggests otherwise.
Opposition increasing
Does this imply that a rally is imminent? Perhaps, but only if volume picks back up. The chart makes it evident that SHIB is facing increasing opposition, with very little conviction. The candles appear tidy, but they are light — exactly the kind of moves that tend to fade away unless they are supported by a surge in actual purchases.
The biggest benefit for SHIB at the moment is that selling pressure seems to be lessening. A supply squeeze will occur if more holders keep removing coins from exchanges. However, if there is no actual demand, the price will either continue to fluctuate, or be rejected once more at the first significant EMA.
This is a setup, not a signal for investors. The outflow data suggests that SHIB has a chance, but the trend has not changed. Keep an eye on whether exchange reserves keep declining, and whether volume eventually starts to increase. When both occur simultaneously, SHIB’s bounce becomes more significant.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team