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Bitcoin's $100,000 line is not a victory lap anymore — it is a stress test. Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence says what is happening now looks a lot like what happens before a market breaks.
Stocks are relatively calm, volatility is at historic lows, and Bitcoin, despite its reputation for chaos, does not have much price movement.
McGlone's latest Bloomberg note calls this "extreme complacency." His chart pairs Bitcoin's 50-week moving trendline against the Cboe Volatility Index and the S&P 500's realized volatility — two metrics that rarely stay this calm for long.
The VIX 50-week average is about 19, and McGlone thinks equities could soon "catch up" to it, meaning turbulence might be closer than traders think.
"Do or Die"
Bitcoin, on the other hand, has been stuck around $100,000 after not being able to go above $110,000. McGlone's phrasing — "Do or Die" — sums up the situation: either Bitcoin holds this level and proves its worth, or it slides back to its long-term average near $56,000.
Every major Bitcoin cycle cools at this exact stage, when the hype dies down and charts start showing "mean reversion."
The correlation charts are another red flag. Bitcoin's link to the S&P 500 remains above 0.53, suggesting the "digital gold" still follows Wall Street's trends. If the stock market wakes up from its recent downturn, Bitcoin's current calm might change — and the next move could show how much the $100,000 milestone is really worth.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team