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Michael Saylor wants everyone to zoom out, and he's got a point. Since adopting the Bitcoin Standard in August 2020, Strategy stock (MSTR) has returned 1,202%, nearly doubling Bitcoin's own 650% gain over the same period. And he is not letting Wall Street forget it.
The chart Saylor posted shows MSTR outperforming BTC, gold, QQQ, SPY and real estate and bond benchmarks. At first glance, MSTR seems like the ultimate high-beta Bitcoin proxy, and the numbers prove it.
According to Bitcointreasury, Strategy now amasses 709,715 BTC, which is about $63.1 billion. The average purchase price is $75,974, which is only slightly below the current spot price, giving the firm a modest +17% unrealized profit.
But its equity valuation tells a more complex story. With a basic market cap of $46 billion and enterprise value of $61 billion, the stock trades at a substantial premium to the fair market value of its BTC holdings.
NAV multipliers range from 0.729 to 0.964, depending on the method. This suggests that sentiment, leverage and anticipation of more aggressive accumulation are already built in.
Bottom line for Strategy, and it is extremely close
If you look at a long-term chart comparing BTC and MSTR, you will see that both assets tend to move in sync. But MSTR supercharges Bitcoin cycles, often with huge surges followed by brutal crashes. Even so, since late 2022, it has been outperforming BTC again on the regular.
If BTC hits $250,000 in this cycle — a target Saylor has mentioned before — MSTR could double again from current levels, keeping its spot as the hottest BTC proxy on public markets.
But if Bitcoin does not manage to even return to the $100,000 zone or drops back to $60,000 due to whatever reason, Saylor & Co. might lose its edge fast. This could mean a drop to between $40 and $45 per MSTR, especially if they sell even one BTC from the bag.
Gamza Khanzadaev
Denys Serhiichuk
Tomiwabold Olajide
Godfrey Benjamin