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February is off to a bloody start, but XRP just might have defended its most important technical structure in over a year - its monthly Bollinger midband against Bitcoin.
With the crypto market taking a nosedive, XRP/BTC finished January just above the 0.00002052 line represented by the 20-month moving average, which has been the foundation of the whole 2024-2026 supercycle move, as visible on TradingView.
For those not familiar, this midband has basically been acting like a gravitational pivot since XRP's big +250% breakout in late 2024. Every monthly test since then - whether it is a rejection, reclamation or wick - has shown whether the trend keeps going or not.
February opened at 0.00002107 BTC for XRP, showing that the structure held by a fraction, but held nonetheless. This keeps a path to 0.00003291, the upper Bollinger band, suggesting a potential upside of +58%.
Check out the daily chart. XRP/BTC just bounced from 0.00002007 after dipping into the lower band for a bit, which hints at fresh accumulation. The compression forming on daily candles also shows a volatility coil that could go either way, but right now it looks like it will push on, not crash.
Main "why not?" for XRP
On the other hand, the overall feeling on the market is really pessimistic. Bitcoin's been down -10.1% in January and -0.73% in February. XRP lost 10.6% in January but only dropped -0.45% in February.
Historically, XRP posts median returns of -7.23% in February, but when it is positive - as in 2022 with +26.3% or 2024 with +17.1% - it often leads to parabolic growth.
The question is not whether XRP will beat BTC in dollar terms. It is about whether it takes the lead in the BTC pair, where all the altcoin season stories start. The monthly band says the game is still on. If XRP remains above 0.00002052 this month, it is all locked in.
Gamza Khanzadaev
Tomiwabold Olajide
Godfrey Benjamin