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Since the start of the week, a major liquidation imbalance has continued to be observed around XRP, clearly reflecting how bearish sentiment dominance persists despite attempts at a local price recovery.
Over the past 24 hours, amid positive geopolitical developments, XRP recovered to the $1.34 level, triggering a sharp spike in short liquidations, leading to the imbalance that over the last 24 hours has reached 1,237%. Looking deeper into the numbers, short liquidations amounted to $2.03 million, while long liquidations were just under $161,700, according to CoinGlass.
Is XRP trapping bears ahead of Tokyo summit?
The pattern repeats across all key time frames. Even over the last hour, short liquidations exceed longs by nearly 15 times. This clearly indicates a lack of confidence among bears in the price spike, which they largely view as nothing more than a rebound from a key support level — unlikely to evolve into a full-scale rally.
As for the so-called max pain level for bears, it is currently at $1.44 per XRP. If price reaches this level, which is about 7.3% higher, short liquidations on XRP derivatives could total $8.75 million. On the other hand, for bulls, max pain is at $1.27, which is just 5.38% below the current price. Around $9.68 million in potential long liquidations are clustered there.
In other words, bears are currently in a more protected position in terms of max pain, but the trend forming since Monday suggests that this gap may soon shift in favor of bulls.
The situation is further fueled by key upcoming events, such as the conference in Tokyo, which officially starts tomorrow, and where XRP will be a central topic of discussion not only among Ripple representatives but also among major figures in Japanese finance, including executives and vice presidents of large conglomerates, such as SBI Holdings.
Opinions remain divided on XRP’s short-term outlook. Given the macroeconomic uncertainty, key levels to watch include support at $1.28, which is now critically important. A breakdown below this level could push XRP down toward $1.15.
For a continuation of the rally, bulls need to secure a move above $1.35, which would open the path toward targets around $1.50 per token.
Dan Burgin
U.Today Editorial Team
Vladislav Sopov
