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Even after months of significant drawdowns, the market is once again willing to take risk on SOL as evidenced by the fact that Solana crossed the $8 billion open interest threshold. At this level, open interest indicates that traders are actively positioning rather than passively watching and leverage has returned to the system.
Activity around Solana
Solana is not currently a forgotten asset based only on that. In terms of price, SOL is not trending but is still technically recovering. The price found a base in the low $120s and has been steadily rising since the steep sell-off from the $200+ area. The rebound appears controlled rather than exuberant.
The 100 and 200-day EMAs are still sloping downward, and SOL is trading below its main long-term moving averages. The short-term structure is improving, but the overall trend remains bearish to neutral for the time being. Here, it matters where this open interest is developing.
Futures positioning
Futures positioning has shifted significantly in favor of longs, especially around whales. There are two sides to that. On the one hand, it conveys the belief that SOL's ecosystem activity and long-term story are undervalued. However, if the price is unable to maintain important support zones between $130 and $135, there is a greater chance of abrupt liquidations.
Data from on-chain and flow indicates mixed but stable conditions. Spot volumes are still low in comparison to previous cycle highs, indicating that derivatives rather than organic spot demand are still the primary driver of this shift. Nonetheless, the lack of aggressive spot selling is encouraging since sellers are not hurrying to sell at these prices.
Volatility is going to be the main risk. Even slight price changes can cause exaggerated reactions when open interest is this high. Fake breakouts or abrupt works in either direction could easily occur on weekends and during low-liquidity sessions. Instead of a clean trend continuation, investors should anticipate instability.
A wider trend reversal may be supported by this open interest buildup if SOL can recover and stay above the mid-$140s while controlling funding rates. Otherwise, it would not be shocking to see a flush toward lower support. In any case, Solana is obviously back on traders' radar, and that in and of itself alters the game.
Arman Shirinyan
Gamza Khanzadaev
Alex Dovbnya