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U.S. government debt has approached the $40 trillion mark, and while the Treasury is looking for a way to deal with this burden, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has offered a simple piece of advice — stop arguing and buy AI stocks and Bitcoin at the same time.
According to the top executive, this is a pragmatic way to hedge against two opposite scenarios that the U.S. economy could face.
Hougan's entire logic is built around Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's plans. The head of the department faces the task of keeping GDP growth above 3% while reducing the deficit. As the Bitwise CIO emphasizes, this fiscal drama has only two possible endings, and each requires a different asset.
If the Treasury is right, chips and processors will soar
Bessent's first option is to "grow our way out" of the debt through explosive productivity growth driven by AI adoption. If this scenario plays out, Hougan expects the technology sector to see a wave of outsized profits. Long-term trends among AI giants, according to the executive, show that this foundation is already being laid.
Chip and infrastructure companies have shown phenomenal resilience since the start of the year (YTD) — Micron Technology (MU) shares have surged +224.97%, while AMD is holding a +108.80% gain.
Short-term pullbacks, such as Broadcom's (AVGO) 25.84% decline over three months or CrowdStrike's (CRWD) 7.24% weekly drop, are viewed by the expert as nothing more than temporary profit-taking. "If Bessent is right and we grow our way out of this, you desperately need to be long AI stocks," Hougan stated.
If the reforms fail, only Bitcoin will save you
Should GDP growth fail to accelerate, the Treasury will have to devalue the debt through high inflation — "inflate our way out." Volatility is already flaring up in the bond market, forcing the department to intervene.
Under these conditions, Hougan sees Bitcoin (BTC) as the main crisis hedge, one that successfully passed a severe stress test in 2026. The first half of the year was difficult for the cryptocurrency: by July, amid tight monetary policy, BTC had found a local bottom after falling 33% year-to-date.
However, in August, as soon as the bond market began to shake, Bitcoin delivered a powerful V-shaped rebound. Over the month, it recovered most of its losses, reducing its year-to-date decline to 10.91%.
How it works in practice
The mutual offset between the two assets is clearly visible on market charts, Hougan notes. During the summer, when Bitcoin fell by a third, surging semiconductor stocks carried investors' portfolios. By the end of August, the situation had reversed: the AI sector entered a correction, but Bitcoin's powerful August rally was precisely what saved investors from broader losses.
"If Bessent is wrong and we get inflation, you need Bitcoin. But if you want to win either way, own both," the Bitwise chief investment officer concluded. Amid historically high uncertainty in the U.S., buying both assets appears to him to be the only logical solution.
U.Today Editorial Team
Dan Burgin
