Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has raised concerns about the current direction of prediction markets, arguing that the sector risks narrowing itself to short-term speculation rather than building long-term financial utility.
In a recent post on X, Buterin acknowledged that prediction markets have achieved measurable traction. Trading volumes are now large enough to sustain professional participants, and the platforms often complement traditional media by aggregating forward-looking information.
However, he warned that much of the activity is increasingly concentrated in short-duration crypto price bets and sports-style wagering — areas he described as offering short-lived engagement but limited informational or societal value.
Prediction markets as insurance?
Buterin outlined what he sees as a structural issue within prediction markets: the need for consistent losing participants to sustain profits for informed traders. He described three typical categories, including inexperienced speculators, institutional information buyers, and hedgers.
He argued that today’s dominant model relies heavily on uninformed traders. While not inherently unethical, he suggested this approach can distort platform incentives, encouraging engagement strategies that prioritize volume over substance.
Information-buying models, where organizations subsidize markets to extract insights, face public goods challenges. Once information is revealed through market pricing, it becomes accessible to everyone, reducing incentives for any single actor to fund it at scale.
Instead, Buterin proposed expanding prediction markets into generalized hedging tools. In this framework, participants would knowingly accept slightly negative expected returns in exchange for reducing exposure to external risks.
For example, an investor holding shares in a biotech firm could use an election-based prediction market to hedge against political outcomes that might impact the sector. By offsetting potential downside scenarios, the investor improves overall risk-adjusted stability rather than seeking speculative profit.
Beyond stablecoins
Buterin extended this concept further, suggesting prediction markets could eventually function as personalized economic stabilizers. Rather than relying on fiat-backed stablecoins, individuals could hold tailored baskets of market positions linked to price indices representing their future spending needs.
In such a system, users might combine growth assets, such as ETH or tokenized equities, with customized prediction positions designed to stabilize purchasing power. Over time, he suggested, this could reduce reliance on traditional currency structures.
The proposal envisions prediction markets denominated in productive or yield-bearing assets, enabling sustained participation from sophisticated capital. Buterin concluded by calling for platforms to prioritize durable financial infrastructure over short-term engagement models.
Prediction markets hype: Where does the road lead?
Over the past year, prediction markets have experienced a four-fold growth, according to the recent report by CertiK.
Prediction markets moved from niche products to widely used financial tools in 2025, according to CertiK. The study reviews a year defined by rapid trading expansion, mounting technical vulnerabilities, and diverging regulatory responses across major jurisdictions.
CertiK estimates that annual trading volumes in the sector multiplied several times over the past year, with liquidity concentrating heavily on a handful of platforms. Using its Skynet Top Board methodology, the firm identifies Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion as the dominant players globally.
The report highlights that rapid expansion has been accompanied by structural weaknesses. In late 2025, a third-party authentication service integrated by Polymarket suffered a breach. While smart contracts were not compromised, the incident underscored how hybrid Web2-Web3 designs can introduce centralized vulnerabilities.
CertiK projects continued institutional interest, expanded regulatory clarity in select regions, and technical upgrades aimed at strengthening privacy and resilience. The firm frames prediction markets not as speculative side products, but as emerging infrastructure for pricing real-world uncertainty.
Vladislav Sopov
Dan Burgin