CertiK, a leading Web3 security services provider, released its 2026 Skynet Prediction Markets Report, an in-depth analysis of the prediction markets sector following a year of explosive growth.
Prediction markets moved from niche products to widely used financial tools in 2025, according to CertiK. The study reviews a year defined by rapid trading expansion, mounting technical vulnerabilities, and diverging regulatory responses across major jurisdictions.
CertiK estimates that annual trading volumes in the sector multiplied several times over the past year, with liquidity concentrating heavily on a handful of platforms. Using its Skynet Top Board methodology, the firm identifies Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion as the dominant players globally.
Each platform has adopted a distinct approach to regulation and infrastructure, ranging from fully regulated models to crypto-native systems operating in legal gray areas.
Key growth drivers
The report highlights that rapid expansion has been accompanied by structural weaknesses. In late 2025, a third-party authentication service integrated by Polymarket suffered a breach. While smart contracts were not compromised, the incident underscored how hybrid Web2-Web3 designs can introduce centralized vulnerabilities.
At the same time, decentralized platforms continue to face familiar risks, including oracle manipulation, privileged key exposure, and transaction front-running.
CertiK also cites independent research suggesting that during peak incentive campaigns, artificial trading activity accounted for a substantial portion of volume on certain platforms. Despite distorted liquidity metrics, aggregated probability data from leading markets generally maintained forecasting accuracy.
On the regulatory front, the landscape remains uneven. Kalshi secured a legal victory against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), reinforcing the status of prediction markets as federally recognized financial instruments.
In contrast, several European jurisdictions have restricted access to crypto-based platforms, classifying them under gambling laws. Additional state-level proposals in the United States could further complicate compliance requirements.
CertiK projects continued institutional interest, expanded regulatory clarity in select regions, and technical upgrades aimed at strengthening privacy and resilience. The firm frames prediction markets not as speculative side products, but as emerging infrastructure for pricing real-world uncertainty.
Dan Burgin
U.Today Editorial Team