Sellers seem to regain initiative as “the majors” suffer significant losses. Bitcoin has lost nearly five percent in the past 24 hours. The loser of today is Bytecoin, as the cryptocurrency has lost more than 17 percent in the past 24 hours. The fundamental background is neutral, however, some events may push the currencies further downside.
One of the most important news for today is the launch of “Operation Crypto Sweep” in US and Canada, which aims to prevent ICO frauds. The main tool of this operation is education meaning governments are going to provide citizens with information about scams, which may lead investors to losses.
The similar operation is launched in China as well. Beijing was the first to ban ICOs. The local IFCERT (National Internet Financial Risk Analysis Technology Platform) is looking for scams and has uncovered more than 400 ICO frauds already.
As for neutral news, the whole crypto community celebrates a so-called “Bitcoin Pizza Day.” This is a historical date for all BTC users as on May 22, 2010 programmer Laszlo Hanyecz bought two pizzas using Bitcoins.
BTC/USD
The general picture on the hourly chart demonstrates that sellers still have control of the situation. BTC price is close to the midterm descending trend line. BTC/USD is likely to develop its downside progress in the midterm as there are no signs of a global reverse. The currency pair establishes new local lows. The correction towards the higher border of the Fibonacci retracement seems to be ended.
Let’s have a closer look at what is going on within the Fibonacci retracement indicator. Bitcoin price has chosen a bearish scenario and declined below the one retracement level. Bitcoin has lost nearly five percent in the past 24 hours. The currency pair is below the midterm descending trend line meaning sellers have full control over the market.
The possible scenarios for BTC/USD are the following:
1. Bullish scenario (nearly 60 percent probability). The currency pair will run upwards to test the descending midterm trend line and higher, towards one retracement level, which coincides with the support area at $7,948. If successful, bulls will be able to drive BTC/USD even higher towards the next 0.786 retracement level and the closest resistance area at $8.137.
2. Bearish scenario (nearly 30 percent probability). The currency pair will resume declining from current level or after testing the red midterm descending trend line. The closest target is the support area at $7,816. The next will be 1.618 retracement level. However, we will have another support area at $7,739 on the way.
3. Neutral scenario (nearly 10 percent of probability). There will be no significant changes in price today and BTC price will stay close to the current levels.
The first bullish scenario means a deeper correction that is likely to happen as Bitcoin has suffered significant losses in the past 24 hours.
ETH/USD
Ethereum has lost over ten percent in the past 24 hours. The currency pair holds bearish moods in midterm as ETH price is below the midterm descending trend line (red). There was an upside correction, but ETH/USD seems to resume its downtrend as the currency pair establishes new local lows.
Let’s have a closer look at the situation within the Fibonacci retracement indicator. The currency pair has chosen the bearish scenario on Tuesday and ETH price declined below the red descending midterm trend line and below the one retracement level. ETH/USD has tested the trend line from below but failed to break it through and jumped off it.
The possible scenarios for ETH/USD are the following:
1. Bullish scenario (nearly 60 percent probability). The currency pair will go towards the closest one retracement level to test it. If successful, buyers will be able to drive ETH/USD towards the descending midterm trend line, which is not far from the closest resistance area at $641.43. The next resistance level will be at $664.59.
2. Bearish scenario (nearly 30 percent probability). The currency pair will resume its decline from current levels or the 1.618 retracement level. The closest support to break is $615.51.
3. Neutral scenario (nearly 10 percent probability). The currency pair will stay here without significant price changes.
The bullish scenario means a deeper correction to the general downside tendency that may be seen on the hourly chart. We think that this general downside tendency is likely to progress in the nearest future.
XRP/USD
Ripple seems to resume its downside tendency as the currency pair is close to the red midterm descending trend line. XRP/USD has lost nearly nine percent in the past 24 hours. The currency pair has ended its upside correction as it touched $0.7022 resistance area and is likely to develop its downside progress in the nearest future.
Let’s have a closer look at what is going on within the Fibonacci retracement. The currency pair has broken through one retracement level, which coincides with $0.6504 support area. It is currently testing the red midterm descending trend line from above as well as the support area at $0.6073. We are close to the 1.618 retracement level as well.
The possible scenarios for XRP/USD are the following:
1. Bullish scenario (nearly 60 percent probability). The currency pair will jump over 1.618 retracement level and move higher towards the next resistance, which is at $0.6504. Here lies the initial point one of the Fibo retracement.
2. Bearish scenario (nearly 30 percent probability). The currency pair will resume its downside tendency from the current level and will test the closest support area at $0.6073 as well as the red descending trend line.
3. Neutral scenario (nearly 10 percent probability). Ripple will stay here without significant price changes.
The bullish scenario means a deeper correction to the global midterm downside tendency which is still actual.
LTC/USD
Bears seem to push Litecoin lower and take control over the market. LTC/USD has lost nearly seven percent in the past 24 hours. The currency pair is close to the red midterm descending trend line and goes along it currently, trying to test. The upside correction to the downtrend seems to be stopped and LTC price is likely to resume its downside tendency in the nearest future.
Let’s take a look inside the Fibo retracement. The currency pair has broken through the one retracement level and the support area at $129.78. Litecoin is close to the midterm downside trend line and jumped off the 1.618 retracement level, which coincides with the support area at $123.25. The possible scenarios for LTC/USD are the following:
1. Bullish scenario (nearly 60 percent of probability). Litecoin will break through the red descending trend line and move higher towards the closest resistance area at $129.78, which coincides with the one retracement level.
2. Bearish scenario (nearly 30 percent probability). The currency pair will jump over the closest support area at $123.25 and move lower.
3. Neutral scenario (nearly 10 percent probability).
The bullish scenario means a deeper correction to the downtrend.
BCN/USD
The currency pair has lost more than 17 percent in the past 24 hours and is the greatest loser of the day from the Top 20. Bytecoin seems to follow its global downtrend as the currency pair returns to its historical lows.
Let’s see what is going on within the Fibo retracement. The price has reached the red midterm trend line and jumped off it. IT is below the 1 retracement level now. BCN/USD has recently tested the support area at $0.0071 and jumped off it. The possible scenarios for the currency pair are the following:
1. Bullish scenario (nearly 60 percent of probability). The currency pair will run towards the closest resistance area at $0.0082, which is close to the 1 retracement level.
2. Bearish scenario (nearly 30 percent of probability). The currency pair will fall below the closest support area at $0.0071 and move towards the closest 2.618 retracement level.
3. Neutral scenario (nearly 10 percent of probability). Bytecoin will stay close to the current levels without significant changes.
The bullish scenario means a deeper correction to the general downside tendency.
Alex Dovbnya
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov