Bitcoin’s biggest existential threat may now have a countdown as, according to crypto analyst Charles Edwards, the clock is ticking toward March 8, 2028, at exactly 11:23 a.m. — the moment when quantum computers could theoretically decrypt the private keys protecting every Bitcoin wallet and basically any other crypto in existence.
The source of this estimate, Quantum Doom Clock, visualizes the risk with scientific precision. It claims that within two years, four months and two days, quantum processors will reach the logical qubit scale needed to break elliptic curve and RSA encryption, which are, in simpler terms, the mathematical foundations that secure nearly all digital assets.
Behind the projection are current qubit growth curves, physical-to-logical conversion ratios and published error rate assumptions from IBM, Google and academic studies. In particular, the data model extrapolates the rise from 53 qubits (Google Sycamore, 2019) to over 6,000 projected by late 2027.
The model was developed by Dr. Richard Carback, a cryptographic and digital privacy pioneer who cofounded the xx network, and Colton Dillion, a veteran crypto entrepreneur involved in multiparty computation wallets and SocialFi startups.
Their model assumes that quantum computing progress will continue at its present exponential rate.
Doomsday scenario for crypto
The "doomsday," also known as the "Q-Day" scenario, is not about collapse right now but about timing. Once a quantum processor reaches roughly 1,673 logical qubits, it could run Shor’s algorithm fast enough to derive private keys from public addresses, rendering existing Bitcoin and Ethereum wallets vulnerable.
Unless networks migrate to quantum-safe algorithms or post-quantum signatures before that threshold, Edwards warns, crypto ownership could be gone overnight — a $2.5 trillion digital economy erased by math.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team