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During a week defined by continuous market pressure, with Bitcoin trading at $91,461 and extreme fear ruling the ball, Samson Mow, known for his ambitious $1,000,000 BTC call, stated that there will be no bear market.
Mow’s position is consistent with the framework behind his $1 million BTC thesis: he does not classify drawdowns of this magnitude, even with extreme-fear sentiment and negative flows, as evidence of a new multiyear downtrend.
Instead, Mow's view centers on factors such as fixed 21 billion BTC issuance, ETF accumulation, post-halving supply conditions and long-horizon demand from institutions and sovereign entities, which he treats as the core drivers of Bitcoin’s long-term success.
Bitcoin math right now
ETF data, in the meantime, adds another layer of context as, on Nov. 17, crypto ETFs registered $436,850,000 in net outflows, extending a multisession streak of negative flows that began after Bitcoin rolled over from the $105,000-$110,000 range.
Open interest reflects the same compression, with perpetuals at $772.73 million and futures at $4.3 billion, both materially lower than levels seen in late October. Implied volatility prints 53.26 for Bitcoin and 80.46 for Ethereum, suggesting the market is hedging against continued uncertainty without pricing in an outsized move.
From a data standpoint, the market is stressed but functioning, and the "no bear market" statement underscores that these conditions — $91,461 BTC, extreme fear, $436.85 million ETF outflows and a $3.12 trillion market cap — do not alter his longer-range outlook.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team