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XRP is currently in an awkward position. In terms of price, the asset is still trapped in a clear declining channel that has dominated the previous few months. Lower highs and lower lows are still present, and XRP is still trading below its important moving averages, all of which are declining. Technically speaking, a verified trend reversal does not resemble this.
XRP moving across networks
But when on-chain data is included in the conversation, the overall picture becomes more complex. Approximately one million XRP were transferred across the network in a brief period of time during the last 24 hours, indicating a dramatic increase in XRP Ledger activity. The number of active users is still comparatively high when compared to previous weeks, and the volume of payments increased significantly. This indicates one crucial point: the network itself is not dead or deserted, even though price action is sluggish.
Long-term increases in active addresses and payment volume typically precede, rather than follow, more significant directional price changes. Prior to the market's obvious reaction, on-chain activity frequently serves as a leading indicator, indicating phases of accumulation or distribution. Even though it has not yet resulted in a bullish price expansion, XRP's spike indicates that capital is moving once more.
XRP pushed down
XRP is still capped by declining resistance on the price chart and is having difficulty regaining crucial levels around the mid-$2 range. Any attempts at a rally are still at risk of failing until XRP breaks out of its declining channel and regains at least one significant moving average with volume confirmation.
The more positive view is that XRP might be entering a base-building stage. RSI is hovering close to oversold-neutral territory, selling pressure seems to be waning and repeated tests of local lows have not resulted in new breakdowns. This suggests that interest is growing beneath the surface when combined with increasing on-chain engagement.
Not yet, or at least not conclusively, is this the end of the downward trend. However, it appears to be the end of complacency. XRP may have a far stronger setup going into the new year than what the chart alone currently indicates, if network activity keeps increasing and the price is able to break above resistance.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team