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XRP may be ready to break free from its February underperformance curse. After years of lagging behind Bitcoin during this season, the XRP/BTC pair on TradingView is flashing one of its most promising upside setups in recent memory, with a 50% increase as the target.
On the monthly chart, XRP just tested and bounced off the midline of the Bollinger band, represented by a 20-month moving average, which is currently near 0.00001988 BTC. From here, a return to the top band at 0.00003343 BTC would represent a 55% gain, which is a level that XRP has not reached since summer 2023.
The last time this pair formed a similar candle structure with a volume breakout and reclaimed the midband, XRP/BTC surged 60% in four weeks.
However, February has historically been unfavorable for XRP. In the last 10 years, the altcoin has beaten Bitcoin in February only once, in 2021, when it surged 122.1%, while Bitcoin barely moved.
Every other year? Losses or underperformance. The median February return for XRP is -8.12%. Bitcoin's median: +12.2%.
XRP supercycle theory
Historically, February is when BTC takes the lead. This makes the current technical setup all the more important. If XRP breaks this pattern, both technically and seasonally, it could trigger a rotation narrative where funds reallocate from Bitcoin to high-beta majors like XRP.
If XRP manages to outperform Bitcoin in February, it will not just be a rare achievement; it could signal the beginning of a significant XRP/BTC supercycle, which has not occurred since the 2017-2018 boom.
For now, the setup is there. History says "no." The chart says "maybe." However, if XRP pulls this off, it will be one of the rarest flips in the cycle, and it begins now.
Gamza Khanzadaev
Godfrey Benjamin
Arman Shirinyan
Tomiwabold Olajide
Yuri Molchan