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Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, known for his distinctive takes on Bitcoin, has released a new post analyzing the current BTC market situation through the lens of his mathematical models. Edwards is widely recognized in the crypto community as a sort of "quantum alarmist" and has persistently warned that the development of quantum computing could become an existential threat to Bitcoin as early as 2028.
However, his latest forecast is focused on a nearer horizon. According to Edwards, a sustained move above $80,000 would signal the official return of a full-fledged crypto bull market.
Why Bitcoin needs $80,000 to claim bull run
He bases this outlook on the Bitcoin Institutional Closed Basis indicator, shown on his chart as colored bands. These bands reflect the average purchase price of Bitcoin accumulated by large funds and public companies. In essence, it serves as a gauge of financial comfort or pain for institutional players.
In this context, the $80,000 BTC level — more precisely, the upper extreme line near $81,487 — represents the cost ceiling for major market participants. A breakout above this zone would mean that virtually all institutional capital moves into a clear profit area.
From a structural standpoint, if the $80,000 barrier is breached, the market would remove the last major resistance level, after which a price discovery phase for Bitcoin could begin. Large sell-side supply would likely diminish.
Despite this optimism, Charles Edwards remains committed to his quantum threat thesis for BTC. For him, the current rally is an opportunity for the network to accumulate resources and liquidity ahead of 2028, which he considers a critical deadline for the implementation of quantum-resistant protection.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
