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While fintech giant Ripple strengthens its position in the United States, XRP is facing the risk of a large-scale technical pullback as the Bollinger Bands indicator on major timeframes by TradingView signals the risk of a 41% decline in the token's price to $0.77.
The situation exposes the main paradox of the current cycle - institutional interest in the ecosystem is growing, but the token itself is losing its key role in the company's commercial settlements.
Bollinger Bands highlight utility shift for XRP
Technical pressure on the asset has been building for months. On the daily chart, the Bollinger channel is expanding while its lines slope downward, confirming the strength of sellers below the $1.32 level.
On a larger scale, this impulse is a continuation of the long-term downtrend that has been in place since July 2025 and within the weekly timeframe, the price is trapped below the middle line around $1.41-$1.44, while the lower boundary of the corridor has moved to $1.11.
However, the main threat is hidden on the monthly chart, where a bearish order block has formed, with its target aligning with the lower Bollinger Band at $0.77.
The fundamental backdrop partly softens these risks, preventing the market from entering a phase of panic selling. As of today, net capital inflows into spot US XRP ETFs have exceeded $1.4 billion, while the CLARITY Act, a bill designed to finally establish the legal status of digital assets, is advancing in the U.S. Senate.
However, behind the facade of these positive developments lies a structural change in Ripple's business, which appears to be depriving the token of support. As the company launches new institutional services, including under the Ripple Prime brand, it is increasingly moving commercial flows to the RLUSD stablecoin and fiat gateways. As a result, XRP's direct utility value is being diluted.
Against this backdrop, average XRP investor returns have now fallen to their lowest point since 2020, according to Santiment. If local support in the $1.30-$1.11 zone is broken, the technical vacuum could quickly send quotes toward the calculated target of $0.77.
Dan Burgin
