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Right now XRP is sending out a variety of signals that do not all line up neatly. The network appears to be alive on the surface, as evidenced by the XRP Ledger's continuously increasing payment volume, which indicates that transactional activity is sustained in terms of sheer volume.
On-chain anomaly
However, the picture changes when you consider the real value being transferred. With only about 562 million XRP transferred in the last 24 hours, payment volume has drastically decreased. This is a low amount compared to what the network has demonstrated during earlier stages of expansion. The primary anomaly is that divergence.
Each payment is worth less when there are more. Rather than large-scale capital flows, this typically indicates fragmentation of activity: smaller transactions, internal shuffling or utility-driven micro-movements. To put it another way, big players on the chain are not using the network in a way that shows strong conviction or aggressive positioning.
Why does it look "weird?"
This is made even more bizarre by the consistent inflows into XRP ETFs. Institutional exposure has not stopped — at least not on paper. The fact that capital is still investing in XRP-related products indicates that fund and structured vehicle demand is still high. Custody abstraction is one reason why this does not result in increased on-chain volume.
XRP can remain in custodial structures without coming into contact with the ledger, so ETF inflows do not always need instant on-chain settlement. Timing is another factor. While on-chain activity indicates more cautious retail or payment-layer usage, institutions may be positioning passively. This hesitancy is reflected in the price chart. The 100 EMA continues to act as persistent resistance, trapping XRP below important moving averages.
Recent rebounds have lacked follow-through volume, and attempts to push higher have been swiftly rejected. The price is structurally grinding sideways to down in a wider corrective channel, which is consistent with the notion of weak conviction. Panic is absent, but there is also no momentum.
As a result, XRP is now neutral but brittle. While declining payment volume indicates that significant capital is on the sidelines, increasing payment counts indicate that the network is neither dying nor stagnating. The tell is that volume should increase first if ETF inflows eventually force a spot-driven repricing.
Arman Shirinyan
Gamza Khanzadaev
Godfrey Benjamin
Yuri Molchan