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After its sharp decline, Bitcoin may have stabilized around $64,000, but the circumstances for a new bull run have not yet come together. The price structure and more general market indicators still point to a market that is trying to find a bottom rather than one that is already moving into a long-term bullish phase.
Bitcoin's market placement
The technical structure of Bitcoin is the most noticeable issue. With the 50-day moving average at $64,122 and the 100-day average at $66,682, Bitcoin is currently trading close to $64,000. As a result, the price is still stuck around short-term resistance, while the 200-day moving average, which is far more significant, is at about $72,017. Because of this arrangement, the overall trend remains negative.
After declining from above $120,000, Bitcoin has been making lower highs for months, and the recovery from June's sub-$60,000 low has so far turned into consolidation rather than a clear trend reversal. Momentum also provides minimal confirmation. Bitcoin is essentially in neutral territory with a daily RSI of about 49.6.
Although buyers are not as weak as they were during the June sell-off, there is no strong momentum expansion at the moment that could validate a breakout. This caution is reinforced by CryptoQuant's wider indicator heatmap. The Thermocap Multiple, NVM Ratio, PnL Index, Bollinger Percent, Pi Cycle Top, and weekly RSI are among the technical and valuation metrics that are still considered bearish.
Bearish market conditions
Bearish conditions are also evident in the one-year Realized Net P&L and Apparent Demand. There have been some advancements. Instead of being bearish, the MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, Adjusted SOPR, LTH/STH SOPR Ratio, and Mayer Multiple are neutral.
The market is no longer exhibiting consistently negative conditions, which makes this significant. Nevertheless, neutralization and a bullish regime change are not the same thing. Bitcoin must first recover the cluster between $66,000 and $67,000 before challenging the 200-day moving average around $72,000 in order to make a stronger recovery case.
The current structure would be significantly improved by a persistent move above that region. Until then, there is no clear opportunity for another Bitcoin bull run. Although BTC has stabilized, this is merely the initial prerequisite.
Before the market can legitimately establish another sustained bullish trend, price, momentum, demand, and on-chain conditions must all come together.
U.Today Editorial Team
Dan Burgin
