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Ripple's "North Star" token, XRP, is ending July at $1.06. After a prolonged decline, the main question heading into the new month is whether the asset can break its four-year streak of negative August closes and finally use its accumulated potential for a bullish breakout from the descending channel.
CryptoRank statistics are clear and stubborn: the last time XRP pleased investors at the end of the summer was in 2021. Since then, August has closed in the red for four consecutive years, with the final month of summer consistently bringing losses.
At the same time, contrary to common assumptions, August is not the worst month in the coin's history. Its historical average return stands at +0.43%, which is significantly stronger than the disastrous performances recorded in June (-6.40%) and February (-6.14%). The main problem with August is precisely this four-year losing streak, which bulls are determined to break.
Why Q3 2026 can be a launchpad for XRP's price recovery
Despite the gloomy August seasonality, quarterly statistics provide a genuine bullish reason for optimism.
Yes, the first half of 2026 was disastrous for XRP. The first quarter closed with a 27.1% decline, while the second fell by 22.4%, with June alone dragging the coin down by 22.1%. However, the third quarter has started to show a reversal in the trend. Q3 returns have now moved into positive territory at +2.10%, largely because July remained in the green with a gain of 1.91%.
Historically, the third quarter is the best period for XRP's recovery. Its average return stands at +17%, while the median rises to +25.8%. Moreover, the overall Q3 performance has remained positive for the past four years, despite local declines during August.
The current daily TradingView chart clearly explains why XRP finally has a bullish opportunity. The coin has been moving inside a broad descending wedge for more than a year. The upper boundary of this global trend currently lies around $1.20–$1.25. This level represents the main resistance, and a breakout above it would open the way for a full-scale rally.
However, the price is currently compressed near the lower boundary of the local support range at approximately $1.05–$1.06.
August will become the decisive battle. It will either confirm its status as a weak period or submit to the broader bullish trend of the third quarter. XRP does not need to set any records to break its four-year losing streak. It only needs to close August above its opening price.
The positive start to the third quarter and the proximity of a strong support zone give the asset its best bullish opportunity to reverse the descending trend in five years.
Dan Burgin
