David "JoelKatz" Schwartz, one of the original architects of the XRP Ledger, has offered a rather blunt reality check to those XRP holders dreaming of triple-digit prices.
In an X social media post, Schwartz dismantled the popular narrative that XRP is destined to hit $50 or $100 in the near future.
If the "smart money" truly believed a 50x explosion was imminent, they would front-run the market, according to Schwartz.
"But I will say this," Schwartz wrote. "If many rational people believed that there was a 10% chance that XRP hit $100 within a few years, they definitely wouldn't sell very much today at much less than $10."
He continued, explaining that high-conviction buyers would essentially corner the market long before the price reached such a discount:
"Those with that belief would quickly buy up most of the XRP, because they'd value it more highly than those without that belief, and soon the supply of XRP well below $10 would dry up."
"Not telling the truth"
For years, social media influencers have peddled price targets of $589, $1,000, or even higher.
However, Schwartz argues that the current market price is proof that the vast majority of investors simply do not see a high probability of a moonshot.
"That the current trading price is well below $10 shows that there aren't very many people who really think it has a 10% chance of hitting $100 within a few years with enough confidence to put their money where their mouth is," Schwartz stated. "So anyone who says otherwise is not telling the truth."
XRP is currently changing hands at $1.76, down 51.7% from the all-time high that was reached roughly seven months ago.
The $0.10 regret
At the same time, Schwartz admitted that his own ability to predict price action has been historically poor.,
When a user implored him to denounce the $100 targets for the sake of his "conscience," Schwartz noted that crypto often defies logic.
"I don't feel comfortable saying something like that," he replied. "While I don't think it's likely, I didn't think it was likely that XRP would ever hit $0.25. I started selling XRP at $0.10 because it seemed insane."
He recalled when Bitcoin hitting $100 "seemed like an impossible dream."
Gamza Khanzadaev
Arman Shirinyan
Tomiwabold Olajide
Alex Dovbnya