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Dogecoin is currently stabilizing following a protracted decline, but despite a noticeable change in derivatives positioning, the overall structure is still bearish.
After months of steadily declining highs and lows, the price is currently moving sideways around the $0.09 mark. The asset remains below all major moving averages, which continue to slope downward, confirming that the macro trend has not yet reversed.
Longs dominate over shorts
The stark disparity between long and short positioning in the current setup is what makes it stand out. The vast majority of traders are wagering on upside, as evidenced by data showing long/short ratios on some exchanges reaching as high as 4:1. On paper, a rally would normally be supported by this degree of bullish positioning.
Price action, however, is refuting that story. Order size and market impact are the key factors causing the disconnect. Short positions are probably bigger and more carefully positioned, even though there are more long positions in terms of the number of accounts.
By sustaining sell pressure, larger players can suppress the price, particularly in a low-momentum setting. This clarifies why DOGE is not reacting to the seemingly overwhelming bullish sentiment.
Volume metrics stay put
The lack of conviction is supported by volume metrics. Major exchanges have seen a decrease in trading activity; on certain platforms, volume has decreased by double digits. Even when positioning is skewed, decreased participation restricts the market’s capacity to produce long-term movements.
However, liquidation data does not show a significant squeeze in either direction, indicating that the market is not expanding but rather is in a state of equilibrium. There have been sporadic inflows, especially in futures markets, according to short-term flow data, but these have not resulted in price increases.
The argument for a prolonged rally is further undermined by the spot flow’s continued irregularity. Derivatives-driven moves typically fade rapidly in the absence of strong spot demand.
Although price behavior points to underlying weakness, the long-heavy positioning suggests optimism. The path of least resistance remains sideways to slightly downward until DOGE is able to reclaim important resistance levels and escape its descending structure.
Dan Burgin
U.Today Editorial Team
Vladislav Sopov
