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Buying Bitcoin before it reaches $54,320 may be too early. At least, that is the picture painted by the monthly BTC/USD chart with Bollinger Bands applied, as per TradingView.
According to this indicator, which measures not only the asset’s volatility but also which bias currently prevails on the market, after Bitcoin’s price in December 2025 fell below the middle band represented by the 20-month moving average, its main magnet became the lower band at $54,420.
While in December this level seemed out of reach, two months later and after a nearly 30% decline in the leading cryptocurrency, such marks no longer look surreal. In net terms, Bitcoin has about 17% left to fall in order to reach the lower band on the monthly time frame.
Why $54,420 level is magnet to watch for BTC
Looking at the historical perspective, it was the lower band on the monthly time frame that marked the market bottom in 2022, when Bitcoin hit $18,622, touching that band. Although in the following months up to January 2023, the price continued moving sideways and even refreshed that low, it did not touch the lower band again.
On one hand, a move into the $54,000 zone with a touch of the lower Bollinger Band would likely place the cryptocurrency very close to a cycle bottom. On the other hand, this does not rule out the possibility that Bitcoin could set a further lower low during a subsequent sideways recovery phase.
Currently trading at $66,000, BTC sits right in the middle of the lower Bollinger channel, representing a relatively dangerous area for making investment decisions, as it has equal probability of retesting the middle band at $89,600, which would mean a 36.5% move, or continuing the decline that has been underway for five months since October 2025 and hitting the lower Bollinger Band.
Either way, a move toward either the middle band or the lower band would offer a more optimal setup for investment decisions, as it would provide greater clarity and a more defined risk-reward profile.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
