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While the Bitcoin market is teasing a breakout toward the critical $85,000-$88,000 range, from which many market participants expect a reversal, trading veteran Bob Loukas points to abnormal behavior. Instead of the typical quick bounce seen in bear markets, BTC is showing unusual resilience, he highlights in a recent outlook update.
Loukas' main argument is the factor of time. Usually, countertrend movements, meaning temporary growth in a declining market, occur impulsively and quickly. The current rise, however, has already lasted 88 days since the local bottom.
Therefore, Loukas says this cycle looks more like base building than a typical upward move, and the market may be witnessing the formation of a long-term cyclical bottom that could extend throughout 2026.
Why veteran trader is cautious despite the $81,000 breakout
Despite the price holding around $81,000, sentiment among large players remains cautious, and Loukas believes the $85,000-$88,000 zone remains a "glass ceiling". If BTC fails to break it in the near term, the market risks a deep retest of the bearish range.
On one side, there is institutional inflow through Bitcoin ETFs totaling $1.16 billion in May already and expectations around the CLARITY Act. On the other, geopolitical pressure continues to weigh on risk assets while traditional indices like the S&P 500 are rising.
Instead of the classic "surge or drop" scenario, Loukas suggests viewing 2026 as a period of transformation. If the temporary bottom thesis holds for Bitcoin, the market is more likely to face prolonged consolidation with repeated tests of the $60,000-$70,000 range rather than a decline.
The market has stopped "running sprints" and moved to a marathon pace, from Loukas' viewpoint, where the asset's endurance, those same 88 days of stability, becomes more important than its minute-to-minute price.
Dan Burgin
U.Today Editorial Team
