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Bitcoin will not crash by 50% this time, says CryptoQuant's Ki Young Ju, but that is not good news either. With Strategy showing no will to exit, Bitcoin's faith is well determined.
According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, the old strategy of monitoring inflow spikes or preparing for whale-driven crashes is now irrelevant.
As he explains in the newest post, the current Bitcoin cycle is dominated by long-term institutional investors like Michael Saylor's Strategy (former MicroStrategy), which holds 673,000 BTC and shows no intention of selling. With that kind of sticky supply, the market lacks the chaotic volatility that defined previous bear phases.
This structural change effectively weakens the predictive power of the on-chain signals that traders once relied on. The four-year cycle is among them.
Don't get too excited, Bitcoin bulls
Still it is not all sunny for the cryptocurrency as, rather than experiencing panic or euphoria, Bitcoin may be entering a phase of prolonged boredom. Ju does not foresee a 50% capitulation like in 2018 or 2022. Liquidity has not disappeared, it has just moved to other sectors, particularly equities and what Ju calls "shiny rocks," as he nicknamed gold and silver.
Realized cap data attached by the analyst confirms this point of view. Uptrend periods marked in green have continued uninterrupted since early 2024, even as spot prices have ranged. This metric tracks the aggregate cost basis of coins in circulation and has now decoupled from speculative selling.
Taken together, these factors reinforce the idea that the price of Bitcoin may fluctuate sideways instead of collapsing.
For bears, Ju's message is clear - shorting BTC here is a high-risk and low-reward bet. And a crash is not coming. Not because Bitcoin is overheated, but because it is too cold to explode.
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