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Ki Young Ju from CryptoQuant laid out the cleanest roadmap for Bitcoin today, saying that capital is still flowing into the asset, and that is the most important thing. For him, it is OG whales who just need to stop selling, and macro sentiment only has to lighten up a bit for Bitcoin to rebound anytime.
Right now, BTC trades near $96,000, down from $105,800 earlier this week after a 10% lose in just three days.
Ju's first trigger is backed directly by data. Realized cap climbed to $1.12 trillion, the highest level ever recorded, and that number only rises when new buyers take coins at higher prices, so even with spot dropping more than 10% in three days, deeper capital kept coming in. Over the last week alone, estimated inflows sit between $2.6-3.1 billion, which historically does not match a real trend breakdown.
The second trigger is the OG whale flow, and they are already easing the pressure. According to Glassnode, long-term holders moved 24,000-27,000 BTC per day this month on a 30-day average, up from 12,500 BTC/day in July, but the part that matters is fading intensity. Those huge 1,000-1,400 BTC per hour transfers from 7+ year wallets that dominated headlines already slowed this week.
Old coins are still active, but the peak pressure appears to have passed, and in previous cycles, this exact cooldown marked the start of price stabilization.
And...finally
The third trigger sits outside on-chain data. Bitcoin fell from $114,000 to the mid-$90,000s, while dollar strength and real yields pressed risk assets across the board. Ju’s point is that if macro sentiment stops tightening — even by a small margin — the combination of inflows and reduced whale selling gives Bitcoin enough fuel for a recovery without a special catalyst.
Stripped to the core, the message is that the structure underneath the pullback is intact, the drivers needed for a rebound are measurable and all three are now visible on-chain and in macro feeds.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team